I throw big topwaters (9"+) all winter long. I seem to be able to find big fish shallow no matter what the water temp. I have fished over the tops of trees that have 15 + feet of water over the top of them and had fish come up and jump all over the bait. I have been working this pattern lately on the lakes around me. Yesterday I caught 3)5's,1)6.5, and 1)8 lber. throwing a 3:16 Wake Bait. Water temp. was 49-50. My partner caught a 9 lber 2 weeks ago in 47 degree water, fish was right on the bank, 3:16 Armegeddon. We have been doing so well on top waters the last couple months that we have'nt been throwing swimbaits at all. Top water bites are way more fun!